Municipal management of the housing shortage from a prospective approach

Abstract

Today's world is increasingly interconnected, complex and uncertain, in which foresight is identified as the ideal tool to promote from the exploration of uncertainty to opportunities and innovation. The objective of the article is to demonstrate the usefulness and relevance of the use of the scenario method in the search for effectiveness in the management of the housing deficit with a governance approach in the municipality of Palma Soriano in Santiago de Cuba. The proposal in question was conceived on the basis of the integration of conceptual and theoretical areas related to governance. Theoretical and empirical methods were used, including dialectical-materialist, historical-logical and systemic-structural methods, accompanied by the techniques of social network analysis (SNA) and prospective scenarios. In addition, the expert method and the DECISION, Micmac, Multipol, Smic-Prob-Expert and UciNet software were used. The following results were obtained in the municipal environment: the key variables for the management of the housing deficit, the particularities of the network of relationships between the actors in the process were revealed, the probable and possible scenarios for 2026 were identified and local public policies and their actions were designed in this direction.